• Does the story fit the pattern of a conspiracy theory?
  
• Does the story fit the pattern of an "urban legend?"
  
• Does the story contain a shocking revelation about a highly controversial issue?
  
• Is the source trustworthy?
  
• What does further research tell you?

"Does the story claim that vast, powerful, evil forces are secretly manipulating events? If so, this fits the profile of a conspiracy theory. Conspiracy theories are rarely true, even though they have great appeal and are often widely believed..."

"The U.S. military or intelligence community is a favorite villain in many conspiracy theories..."

"In his book 9/11: The Big Lie, French author Thierry Meyssan falsely claimed that no plane hit the Pentagon on September 11, 2001. Instead, he claimed that the building had been struck by a cruise missile fired by elements within the U.S. government..."

"Is the story startlingly good, bad, amazing, horrifying, or otherwise seemingly 'too good' or 'too terrible' to be true? If so, it may be an 'urban legend.'..."

"AIDS, organ transplantation, international adoption, and the September 11 attacks are all new, frightening or, in some ways, discomforting topics. Such highly controversial issues are natural candidates for the rise of false rumors, unwarranted fears and suspicions. Another example of a highly controversial issue is depleted uranium, a relatively new armor-piercing substance that was used by the U.S. military for the first time during the 1991 Gulf War.

"There are many exaggerated fears about depleted uranium because people associate it with weapons-grade uranium or fuel-grade uranium, which are much more dangerous substances. When most people hear the word uranium, a number of strongly held associations spring to mind, including the atomic bomb, Hiroshima, nuclear reactors, radiation illness, cancer, and birth defects..."

"Another highly controversial issue is that of forbidden weapons, such as chemical or biological weapons. The United States is regularly, and falsely, accused of using these weapons..."

"Any highly controversial issue or taboo behavior is ripe material for false rumors and urban legends...."

"Certain websites, publications, and individuals are known for spreading false stories..."

"There are many conspiracy theory websites, which contain a great deal of unreliable information..."

"Extremist groups, such as splinter communist parties, often publish disinformation. This can be especially difficult to identify if the false allegations are published by front groups. Front groups purport to be independent, non-partisan organizations but actually controlled by political parties or groups..."

"The only way to determine whether an allegation is true or false is to research it as thoroughly as possible. Of course, this may not always be possible given publication deadlines and time pressures, but there is no substitute for thorough research, going back to the original sources. Using the Internet, many allegations can be fairly thoroughly researched in a matter of hours..."

Flooding expected from Hurricane Katrina could wreak catastrophe on New Orleans, overwhelming its water and sewage systems, damaging its structures and leaving survivors in a bowl of toxic soup, a top hurricane expert said Sunday.

Landfall is expected early Monday. (Latest report)

"We need to recognize we may be about to experience our equivalent of the Asian tsunami, in terms of the damage and the numbers of people that can be killed," said Ivor van Heerden, director of the Louisiana State University Public Health Research Center in Baton Rouge.

Some 25 feet of standing water is expected in many parts of the city -- almost twice the height of the average home -- and computer models suggest that more than 80 percent of buildings would be badly damaged or destroyed, he said. (Watch a report on the worst-case scenario)

Floodwaters from the east will carry toxic waste from the "Industrial Canal" area, nicknamed after the chemical plants there. From the west, floodwaters would flow through the Norco Destrehan Industrial Complex, which includes refineries and chemical plants, said van Heerden, who has studied computer models about the impact of a strong hurricane for four years.

"These chemical plants are going to start flying apart, just as the other buildings do," he predicted. "So, we have the potential for release of benzene, hydrochloric acid, chlorine and so on."

That could result in severe air and water pollution, he said.

In New Orleans, which lies below sea level, gas and diesel tanks are all located above ground for the same reason that bodies are buried above ground. In the event of a flood, "those tanks will start to float, shear their couplings, and we'll have the release of these rather volatile compounds," van Heerden added.

Because gasoline floats on water, "we could end up with some pretty severe and large -- area-wise -- fires."

"So, we're looking at a bowl full of highly contaminated water with contaminated air flowing around and, literally, very few places for anybody to go where they'll be safe."

He went further.

"So, imagine you're the poor person who decides not to evacuate: Your house will disintegrate around you. The best you'll be able to do is hang on to a light pole, and while you're hanging on, the fire ants from all the mounds -- of which there is two per yard on average -- will clamber up that same pole. And, eventually, the fire ants will win."

The levees intended to protect the city vary in height, from as low as 10 feet above sea level to about 14 feet, he said. They too are vulnerable, because they are made of earth, he said.

Disaster waiting to happen

Previous studies have suggested a catastrophic toll in lives and property if a major hurricane were to hit the New Orleans area, where about 1.3 million people live.

Walter Maestri, the emergency management chief in neighboring Jefferson Parish, said Hurricane Georges in 1998 could have killed as many as 44,000 people had it struck the city directly.

"The way it's described, we describe it here, is Lake Pontchartrain has now become Lake New Orleans," he told CNN in 2004.

Van Heerden said levees built to protect New Orleans from Lake Pontchartrain could be buffeted by waves from the lake, which is about 23 miles by 35 miles in area.

"You're going to have enormous waves develop on that lake, especially with as much as 14 hours of hurricane-force winds." Those waves will erode the levees, raising the possibility of their collapse, he said.

"This is what we've been saying has been going to happen for years," he said. "Unfortunately, it's coming true."

Rick Luettich, a professor at the University of North Carolina's Institute of Marine Sciences, compared Katrina's expected impact on areas far up the Mississippi to "grabbing the end of the bed cover and giving it a hard snap."

That snap will push "probably in excess of 10 feet" of floodwater up the river, he predicted. "It will propagate up the river like a wave," past Baton Rouge, more than 70 miles away, he said.

For 15 years, Luettich has been developing a hydrodynamic circulation model -- called AdCirc -- that he said the Federal Emergency Management Agency has endorsed to help emergency managers predict storm damage.

Apologizing for the possibility that his comment could be interpreted as somewhat ghoulish, he said, "This is, in some ways, a little bit exciting for us, because it's a real opportunity to test this technology we've developed and see how well it works."

"My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge..." —Hosea 4:6

"We have many international organizations in which to advance our foreign policy. And one of those is the United Nations, which is so prominent in the news today."

"An ultimate goal of the United States is a world which is free from the scourge of war and the dangers and burdens of armaments; in which the use of force has been subordinated to the rule of law; and in which international adjustments to a changing world are achieved peacefully. It is the purpose of this chapter to provide impetus toward this goal by addressing the problem of reduction and control of armaments looking toward ultimate world disarmament."

"Controlling the proliferation of illicit weapons is a necessary first step towards the non-proliferation of small arms. These weapons must be brought under the control of states, and states must be held responsible for their transfer."

— Kofi Annan
We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century
United Nations Department of Information, 2000
pp. 52-53

StopAgeda21.com is in the process of being transferred to the new server. It's not currently accessible.

China is prepared to use nuclear weapons against the US if it is attacked by Washington during a confrontation over Taiwan, a Chinese general said on Thursday.

"If the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition on to the target zone on China's territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons," said General Zhu Chenghu.

Gen Zhu was speaking at a function for foreign journalists organised, in part, by the Chinese government. He added that China's definition of its territory included warships and aircraft.

"If the Americans are determined to interfere [then] we will be determined to respond," said Gen Zhu, who is also a professor at China's National Defence University.

"We . . . will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian. Of course the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds . . . of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese."

Gen Zhu is a self-acknowledged "hawk" who has warned that China could strike the US with long-range missiles. But his threat to use nuclear weapons in a conflict over Taiwan is the most specific by a senior Chinese official in nearly a decade.

New Plans for an Old Number
CBS News and the Christian Science Monitor
August 10, 2005

Once they kept track only of who was eligible for old-age pensions. Today they're used to validate personal information for a multitude of transactions — from renting a video to opening a credit account to receiving medical care.

Seventy years old this month, Social Security cards, each with its unique identifying digits, have become an integral, nearly indispensable, part of American life and commerce.

But their increased use has also made the numbers valuable for identity thieves, who can use the information to empty someone's bank accounts or run up credit-card charges. As awareness of the problem has grown, Social Security numbers have begun to disappear from driver's licenses and other highly visible documents, and businesses are guarding them more carefully. Many people no longer carry their Social Security card in their wallet or purse.

While these efforts are laudable, privacy experts say, they're too little, too late. "Reducing the collection and display of Social Security numbers is a small help," says Robert Gellman, a privacy and information policy consultant in Washington, D.C.

"The vast majority of the American populace [already] has their Social Security number out where any identity thief can obtain it with remarkable ease," adds Timothy Sparapani, who tracks privacy rights issues for the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU).

Unlike a computer password, a Social Security number is difficult to change. The process usually involves persuading the Social Security Administration that you have been a victim of identity theft — and that you're not trying to hide from creditors or a criminal record.

There's much talk of legislation to limit the use of Social Security numbers by private industry, Gellman says, but inevitably various groups will ask for exceptions, and any new law is likely to be watered down. What legislation might profitably do, he says, is try to protect future Social Security numbers from being compromised. For numbers that already have been issued, it's "largely a lost cause," he says.

Scandals involving financial and other data lost by companies such as ChoicePoint, LexisNexus, and Bank of America have energized Washington to seek to help protect the privacy of Americans. But at the same time, a security measure born of the war on terrorism has yielded a new law that could become a "honeypot" for identity thieves, Sparapani says.

The Real ID Act, passed in May as part of a larger bill to fund U.S. troops in Iraq and tsunami relief in Asia, will turn state driver's licenses into what amounts to national identity cards by mid-2008.

But that's not its purpose, says the bill's author, House Judiciary Committee Chairman James Sensenbrenner Jr. (R) of Wisconsin. He sees the act, which tightens the requirements to obtain driver's licenses, as aiding in the fight against terrorism. "The Real ID is vital to preventing foreign terrorists from hiding in plain sight while conducting their operations and planning attacks," said Sensenbrenner after the bill passed.

National standards for licenses, to be set by the federal Department of Homeland Security, are expected to be dramatically strengthened. Applications are likely to require several forms of identification, and information on the cards will be linked between states and the federal government. Life without one of these beefed-up licenses could be difficult: They'll be needed to board an airplane, visit any federal facility, or, in all likelihood, receive any federal services.

The act will "help to ensure that every driver is who they say they are," says Jason King, a spokesman for the American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators. The measure also makes traffic in fraudulent ID credentials a federal crime.
Privacy experts, however, are concerned that the act requires that the cards contain a "common machine-readable technology" — and that's where privacy and data theft issues may arise, they say. This technology could be a simple magnetic strip, bar code, or computer chip, which would allow information to be collected from the card at a distance of several feet.

Merchants, for example, might ask for the cards as a form of identification and then electronically collect the data off them — name, birth date, ID number, photo, and perhaps more. Once a business has the data, it's "totally unrestricted what they can do with it," Gellman says.

The ACLU is urging Homeland Security to make privacy a high priority as it works out the specifics for the new driver's licenses, Sparapani says.

While state licenses are quietly on their way to becoming a de facto national ID card in the United States, both Britain and Australia are engaging in lively public debates on whether to introduce national identity cards. No Western democracy has instituted such cards for many decades, says Simon Davies, the director of Privacy International in London. The idea of national ID cards has "started to see a public backlash" in Britain as people learn more about it, he says.

"The institution of a national ID card raises fundamental questions about the relationship of power between the citizen and the government," he says.

In order to prevent identity theft and other misuse, such cards would need to have strong security controls, perhaps requiring a scan of a person's fingerprints or irises. "I can't see taxpaying Americans allowing themselves to be iris-scanned for an identity card," Davies says.

In a report to the British government in June, researchers at the prestigious London School of Economics and Political Science said that both identity theft and national security might be better addressed by other means than through national identity cards, such as by giving individuals more control over who sees their personal information or by strengthening border patrols and supplying more funds for police investigations.

Current ID technologies are "untested and unreliable," the report said. An ID card, it concluded, "should be regarded as a potential danger to the public interest and to the legal rights of individuals."

Gun ban 'utopia' creates violent crime increase; The cure is worse than the disease

Lake County Record-Bee
March 3, 2005

In a pattern that's repeated itself in Canada and Australia, violent crime has continued to go up in Great Britain despite a complete ban on handguns, most rifles and many shotguns. The broad ban that went into effect in 1997 was trumpeted by the British government as a cure for violent crime. The cure has proven to be much worse than the disease.

Crime rates in England have skyrocketed since the ban was enacted. According to economist John Lott of the American Enterprise Institute, the violent crime rate has risen 69 percent since 1996, with robbery rising 45 percent and murders rising 54 percent. This is even more alarming when you consider that from 1993 to 1997 armed robberies had fallen by 50 percent. Recent information released by the British Home Office shows that trend is continuing.

Reports released in October 2004 indicate that during the second quarter of 2004, violent crime rose 11 percent; violence against persons rose 14 percent.

The British experience is further proof that gun bans don't reduce crime and, in fact, may increase it. The gun ban creates ready victims for criminals, denying law-abiding people the opportunity to defend themselves.

contrast, the number of privately owned guns in the United States rises by about 5 million a year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. The number of guns owned by Americans is at an all-time high, fast approaching 300 million.

Meanwhile the FBI reports that in 2003 the nation's violent crime rate declined for the 12th straight year to a 27-year low. The FBI's figures are based on crimes reported to police. By comparison, the U.S. Department of Justice reported in September that, according to its annual national crime victim survey, violent crime reached a 30-year low in 2003.

Right-to-Carry states fared better than the rest of the country in 2003. On the whole, their total violent crime, murder and robbery rates were 6 percent, 2 percent and 23 percent lower respectively than the states and the District of Columbia where carrying a firearm for protection against criminals is prohibited or severely restricted. On average in Right-to-Carry states the total violent crime, murder, robbery and aggravated assault rates were lower by 27 percent, 32 percent, 45 percent and 20 percent respectively.

As usual, most of the states with the lowest violent crime rates are those with the least gun control, including those in the Rocky Mountain region, and Maine, New Hampshire and Ver-mont in the Northeast. The District of Columbia and Maryland, which have gun bans and other severe restrictions on gun purchase and ownership, retained their regrettable distinctions as having the highest murder and robbery rates.

Got meat?

The Food Bank of Ukiah would like to put the word out to sportsmen and women that it is in need of protein for those who need food. Fishermen and hunters are being asked to donate any excess fish or wildlife they may possess. Donations would have to be cleaned and processed, the Food Bank does not have facilities to do this.

You may have some fish or game in your freezer that's nearing its keeping limit. The Food Bank would appreciate such donations very much. In fact, the Food Bank would prefer frozen food donations.

The Food Bank also would like to extend the invitation to pig, goat or cattle owners who would like some bread, fruit or vegetables for their livestock. An excess of these items is often available; instead of throwing it out, the Food Bank would be happy to give it to someone who can use it for their livestock.

The Food Bank of Ukiah is open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. weekdays and Saturday morning until noon. You may call manager Jeff Rogers at 462-8879, extension 122, for more information.

Fishing report

The ocean salmon season opened in Fort Bragg on February 12. The weekend showed good promise for the remainder of the season; anglers did well for this early in the season.

A California Department of Fish and Game biologist was checking in fish at the up-river launch area and had tallied 34 fish by 11 a.m. Party boats managed fair catches as well.

Sunday was even better for some. A good friend of mine and his crew landed limits of salmon. Most fish are running fairly small, but one party boat landed a 20-pound fish.

I drove by a "fisherman" neighbor's house last week and saw him hosing down six nice salmon he and his fishing buddies caught.

The outlook for salmon around Fort Bragg is great, although many of this year's fish will be scarce until April.

Lake Mendocino is reported to be 82 percent full. I question that. My first trip on the lake found most of the stick-ups, brush piles and fish habitat high and dry. Looks to me like the lake needs another 10 to 12 feet of water, in order to give the fish ample spawning opportunities and the cover they need to hide from predators.

Stripers were marked on my "fish-finder" sonar all over the lake. It was another thing to get a strike from them. I finally hooked and landed two. They were small, but I was encouraged by the bite this early in the year.

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Commander Eileen Collins said astronauts on shuttle Discovery had seen widespread environmental destruction on Earth and warned on Thursday that greater care was needed to protect natural resources.

///snip///

"Sometimes you can see how there is erosion, and you can see how there is deforestation. It's very widespread in some parts of the world," Collins said in a conversation from space with Japanese officials in Tokyo, including Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

"We would like to see, from the astronauts' point of view, people take good care of the Earth and replace the resources that have been used," said Collins, who was standing with Japanese astronaut Soichi Noguchi in front of a Japanese flag and holding a colorful fan.

Collins, flying her fourth shuttle mission, said the view from space made clear that Earth's atmosphere must be protected, too.

"The atmosphere almost looks like an eggshell on an egg, it's so very thin," she said. "We know that we don't have much air, we need to protect what we have."